Modest HDB Resale Price Growth Expected in 2026 Amid Rising Supply

Prices in the resale market have seen substantial fluctuations, with a 0.4% dip noted in the third quarter of 2025, making it the slowest growth pace recorded in the past five years. In comparison, this follows a trajectory of 6.9% in Q1 2024 and 3.8% in Q3 2023, as reported by Christine Sun, the senior research director at real estate firm OrangeTee & Tie.

A significant shift in the demand landscape has been observed since the advent of the Build-To-Order (BTO) market. In this context, over 30,000 new units were made available through various BTO and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercises in 2025, attracting around 100,000 applicants. This influx is notable when compared to the prior year, where the two-year high was recorded at 80,000 in 2023 and 82,000 in 2024.

HDB resale prices have notably increased by 2.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, following a dramatic surge of 9.7% in 2024. Prices witnessed a notable acceleration at a rate of 4.9% in 2023. Given the current cooling market conditions, million-dollar transactions have become rarer, and only a fraction of overall resale activity involves such high-value exchanges.

With regard to market dynamics, a decline in transactions among non-mature estates is apparent. The last few quarters indicate that prices have caught up to their respective levels from 2014 to 2019, with last year marking the lowest supply of flats meeting their minimum occupation period (MOP) in a decade, dropping to 11,952 units compared to the previous year.

Analysts suggest that as policy measures have eased demand, including the ability for singles to buy flats from Flexi BTOs across the nation starting October 2024, a gradual growth in resale prices is expected. All these factors point towards an estimated increase of between 3% to 4.5% in resale prices for the next year.

Mature estates, indicative of stability, continued to outperform their non-mature counterparts, where as of late November, the average resale prices stood at approximately $703,563, marking a 7% increase on the year, alongside a corresponding figure of $615,661 in non-mature estates.

The HDB is looking to release a record number of flats, with plans for 102,433 units spread across various locations in 2026. This is comparable to the nearing 20,487 units sold at the beginning of 2025, whereby almost all of the BTO flats are sold swiftly, showcasing a vibrant interest in the primary market.

The predicted price growth is reflective of broader market conditions and policy changes, aligning local real estate trends with prevailing economic factors. Analysts will continue to monitor the interplay between supply dynamics and buyer demand as 2026 approaches. As the housing demand landscape morphs, adapting strategies in response to consumer behavior will be critical for stakeholders involved in the public housing sector.

In conclusion, while the public housing market grapples with a host of challenges, the overall sentiment leans towards a tempered outlook for resale prices in 2026. Analysts remain vigilant to changing conditions as both potential homeowners and stakeholders alike prepare to navigate this evolving realm in the years ahead.